At the start of 2021, I made some predictions. Here I’m grading them.

Predictions in bold came true. Predictions in strikethrough did not come true. Predictions in italics could not be determined in some way.

Confidence level: 99%

  • I will still be in love with root
  • I will still be an atheist
  • I will not have PIV sex
  • I will not grow out my hair past my shoulders
  • No draft in US

Actual accuracy: 100%

Confidence level: 98%:

  • Biden will be inaugurated as planned
  • I will not get COVID
  • M. will not come out to me
  • I will not win NaNoWriMo
  • I will not attempt suicide
  • I will not buy a house
  • I will still intend not to have biochildren
  • No new Millennium prizes awarded

Actual accuracy: 100%

Confidence level: 95%:

  • I will still be with root
  • I will not become the (practical or legal) guardian of any minors
  • I will not travel outside the country
  • I will get a COVID vaccine
  • I will not drink more than a symbolic amount of alcohol
  • I will not attend any protests
  • There will be at least one new herb in the Official Roster

Actual accuracy: 100%

Confidence level: 90%:

  • I will still be a vegetarian
  • I will move at least once
  • I will not do christmas with my parents
  • I will not officially disown my parents
  • I will not get a new phone
  • I will not have to go to the ER on my own account
  • I will not get my ears pierced
  • Root will get a new job
  • Root and I will complete at least one thread
  • I will read at least one new, complete, commercially-published book
  • Hollowart remains the best site of its kind
  • I will attend at least one wedding

Actual accuracy: 100%

Confidence level: 80%:

  • I will start T
  • I will watch at least some of the Olympics
  • I will tell my parents my name
  • I will make < 10 blog posts
  • I will get my flu shot
  • I will acquire a new emfriend
  • I will still be engaged to root
  • M. will go to college in the country
  • I will not get glasses
  • I will not have to go to the ER on anyone’s account
  • I will not do weed
  • I will not get a new primary computer
  • I will not go to Pride
  • I will not get a tattoo
  • I will have three living grandparents
  • I will attend a large unmasked indoor event
  • I will have significant body-image improvements
  • Queen of England will survive
  • Bitcoin above $5k
  • Bitcoin below $30k
  • I will still be primarily using my current primary email address
  • Legal quarantine/lockdown restrictions fully lifted in US

Actual accuracy: 73%

Confidence level: 70%

  • I will not get top surgery
  • I will not get a driver’s license
  • I will not acquire >100 followers on any new social media account
  • I will not have sex with any new bodies
  • I will be out at work
  • I will still identify as nonbinary
  • I will not do any major holidays with my parents
  • I will read at least one more book of the Vorkosigan Saga to root
  • Bitcoin above $8k
  • Bitcoin below $20k
  • I will not attend any funerals
  • I will no longer own any dresses
  • Not the warmest year on record

Actual accuracy: 84%

Confidence level: 60%

  • I will give myself an injection
  • I will get a new job
  • I will still be on all my current medications
  • I will give approximately 10% of my income to charity
  • I will see my parents in person
  • I will not meet with a therapist
  • I will get on a new phone plan
  • I will get a sleep study
  • I will not get back on speaking terms with my mom
  • I will still live in California
  • I will not get the restraining order I want
  • I will get a pet
  • I will still be working from home
  • I will go to an aquarium
  • I will still identify as androsexual
  • I will finish reading homestuck
  • I will not cut
  • I will not see a dentist
  • Root will not date anyone new
  • Bitcoin below $10k
  • Root will get top surgery
  • If root and I break up, I will be the one who does the breaking up

Actual accuracy: 52%

Summary

  • 99% predictions: 100% happened
  • 98% predictions: 100% happened
  • 95% predictions: 100% happened
  • 90% predictions: 100% happened
  • 80% predictions: 73% happened
  • 70% predictions: 84% happened
  • 60% predictions: 52% happened

Overall I’m pretty pleased with the results! Most of that seems within random variation. (I could do a formal statistical analysis but I’m not going to.)

Stay tuned for 2022 predictions.